Show pageOld revisionsBacklinksBack to top This page is read only. You can view the source, but not change it. Ask your administrator if you think this is wrong. ====== yùcè: 预测 - To Predict, To Forecast ====== ===== Quick Summary ===== * **Keywords:** 预测, yùcè, predict in Chinese, forecast in Chinese, Chinese word for prediction, how to say forecast in Mandarin, Chinese weather forecast, economic prediction, HSK 5 vocabulary. * **Summary:** Learn the essential Chinese word **预测 (yùcè)**, which means "to predict" or "to forecast." This page provides a deep dive into its meaning, from character origins to modern usage in weather reports, economic analysis, and daily conversation. Discover how **预测 (yùcè)** differs from similar words like "to guess" (猜测) and "to prophesy" (预言), and master its use with 10 practical example sentences. This guide is perfect for any learner looking to understand how to talk about the future in Mandarin Chinese. ===== Core Meaning ===== * **Pinyin (with tone marks):** yùcè * **Part of Speech:** Verb, Noun * **HSK Level:** HSK 5 * **Concise Definition:** To predict or forecast based on data, analysis, or inference. * **In a Nutshell:** **预测 (yùcè)** is the go-to word for any data-driven prediction. Think of it as a "calculated forecast" rather than a simple guess. It's the word used by meteorologists for weather, economists for market trends, and scientists for experimental outcomes. It carries a sense of formality and analytical rigor. ===== Character Breakdown ===== * **预 (yù):** This character means "in advance," "beforehand," or "to prepare." You can see it in words like 预习 (yùxí - to preview a lesson) and 预订 (yùdìng - to book in advance). It suggests looking ahead. * **测 (cè):** This character means "to measure" or "to survey." The water radical (氵) on the left hints at its ancient origin: measuring the depth of water. It implies a systematic, quantifiable action. * When combined, **预测 (yùcè)** literally means "to measure in advance." This perfectly captures the modern meaning of making a calculated forecast based on available information. ===== Cultural Context and Significance ===== In a culture that values long-term planning and stability, from imperial-era astrological charts to modern-day five-year economic plans, the ability to **预测 (yùcè)** the future has always been significant. While ancient China had forms of divination like consulting oracle bones or the I Ching (《易经》), the modern term **预测 (yùcè)** is almost exclusively scientific and secular. A useful comparison to Western culture is the distinction between a "prediction" and a "forecast." While "prediction" in English can sometimes carry a hint of a psychic guess or a simple hunch, **预测 (yùcè)** aligns almost perfectly with the more data-driven, analytical concept of a "forecast." For instance, an American might casually "predict" who will win a sports game based on gut feeling. In Chinese, while you could use **预测**, it implies you have some basis for your claim; using 猜 (cāi - to guess) would be more common for a simple hunch. This reflects a cultural inclination towards grounding future-looking statements in evidence and analysis. ===== Practical Usage in Modern China ===== **预测 (yùcè)** is a common and important word in formal and semi-formal contexts. * **Weather Forecasting:** This is one of the most frequent uses. 天气预测 (tiānqì yùcè) is a synonym for the more common 天气预报 (tiānqì yùbào - weather report). * **Economics and Business:** Analysts constantly **预测 (yùcè)** market trends, stock prices, and economic growth rates. This usage is very formal and professional. * **Science and Technology:** Scientists **预测 (yùcè)** the results of experiments or the trajectory of celestial bodies. AI models are often used to **预测 (yùcè)** outcomes. * **General Conversation:** While slightly formal, it can be used in daily life to mean "My prediction is..." when you have a strong reason for your belief. It's a step up from a simple guess. For example, "I predict he'll be late because the traffic is terrible." ===== Example Sentences ===== * **Example 1:** * 气象学家**预测**明天会有大雨。 * Pinyin: Qìxiàngxuéjiā **yùcè** míngtiān huì yǒu dàyǔ. * English: The meteorologist predicts that there will be heavy rain tomorrow. * Analysis: A classic example showing its use in a scientific, data-based context (weather forecasting). * **Example 2:** * 经济学家们正在**预测**明年的经济增长率。 * Pinyin: Jīngjìxuéjiāmen zhèngzài **yùcè** míngnián de jīngjì zēngzhǎng lǜ. * English: Economists are forecasting next year's economic growth rate. * Analysis: This demonstrates its formal usage in the field of economics. * **Example 3:** * 很难准确**预测**股票市场的走向。 * Pinyin: Hěn nán zhǔnquè **yùcè** gǔpiào shìchǎng de zǒuxiàng. * English: It is difficult to accurately predict the direction of the stock market. * Analysis: Here, **预测** is used to talk about the difficulty of making a precise forecast in a complex system. * **Example 4:** * 根据目前的数据，我们**预测**项目将按时完成。 * Pinyin: Gēnjù mùqián de shùjù, wǒmen **yùcè** xiàngmù jiāng ànshí wánchéng. * English: Based on the current data, we predict the project will be completed on time. * Analysis: This highlights the "data-driven" nature of **预测** in a business or project management context. * **Example 5:** * 他的成功完全超出了我的**预测**。 * Pinyin: Tā de chénggōng wánquán chāochūle wǒ de **yùcè**. * English: His success completely exceeded my prediction. * Analysis: This shows **预测** used as a noun ("a prediction"). * **Example 6:** * 你能**预测**一下这场比赛谁会赢吗？ * Pinyin: Nǐ néng **yùcè** yīxià zhè chǎng bǐsài shéi huì yíng ma? * English: Can you predict who will win this match? * Analysis: A more conversational use, but still implies the person being asked might have some knowledge or analytical reason for their choice, rather than just a wild guess. * **Example 7:** * 公司的年度销售**预测**报告已经出来了。 * Pinyin: Gōngsī de niándù xiāoshòu **yùcè** bàogào yǐjīng chūlái le. * English: The company's annual sales forecast report is out. * Analysis: Another example of **预测** as a noun, modifying "report" (报告). * **Example 8:** * 人工智能可以帮助我们**预测**和预防疾病。 * Pinyin: Réngōng zhìnéng kěyǐ bāngzhù wǒmen **yùcè** hé yùfáng jíbìng. * English: Artificial intelligence can help us predict and prevent diseases. * Analysis: Shows the modern, technological application of the word. * **Example 9:** * 没人能够**预测**未来会发生什么。 * Pinyin: Méi rén nénggòu **yùcè** wèilái huì fāshēng shénme. * English: No one can predict what will happen in the future. * Analysis: A philosophical use of the word, emphasizing the limits of prediction. * **Example 10:** * 他的**预测**结果非常准确，几乎和事实一样。 * Pinyin: Tā de **yùcè** jiéguǒ fēicháng zhǔnquè, jīhū hé shìshí yīyàng. * English: His prediction result was very accurate, almost the same as the actual outcome. * Analysis: Emphasizes the goal of a good **预测**: accuracy (准确 zhǔnquè). ===== Nuances and Common Mistakes ===== * **预测 (yùcè) vs. 预言 (yùyán):** This is a critical distinction. * **预测 (yùcè)** is a scientific or data-based **forecast**. (e.g., weather, economics). * **预言 (yùyán)** is a **prophecy**, often with a mystical, fatalistic, or religious connotation. A prophet makes a 预言; a scientist makes a 预测. * Incorrect: ~~气象学家预言明天会下雨。~~ (Meteorologists don't make prophecies). * Correct: 气象学家**预测**明天会下雨。 * **预测 (yùcè) vs. 估计 (gūjì):** * **预测 (yùcè)** is more formal and implies a model or systematic analysis. * **估计 (gūjì)** means "to estimate" and is often based on experience or a quick assessment. It's more common in everyday speech. * Example: "I estimate (估计) we'll arrive in 20 minutes." (Based on a glance at the traffic). * Example: "The GPS predicts (预测) we will arrive in 18 minutes." (Based on a data model). * **Overuse in Casual Speech:** For a simple guess among friends, using the more formal **预测** can sound a bit stiff. Words like **猜 (cāi - to guess)** or **觉得 (juéde - to think/feel)** are often more natural. * Natural: 我猜他今天不会来了。(Wǒ cāi tā jīntiān bù huì lái le. - I guess he won't come today.) * A bit too formal: 我预测他今天不会来了。(Wǒ yùcè tā jīntiān bù huì lái le. - I predict he won't come today.) ===== Related Terms and Concepts ===== * [[预报]] (yùbào) - To forecast. Almost a synonym for 预测, but overwhelmingly used for weather (天气预报 tiānqì yùbào). * [[预言]] (yùyán) - Prophecy. The mystical, non-scientific counterpart to 预测. * [[估计]] (gūjì) - To estimate. A less formal, less data-intensive calculation. * [[推测]] (tuīcè) - To infer, to speculate. Emphasizes the logical process of deducing something from evidence. * [[预见]] (yùjiàn) - To foresee. Implies a deeper insight or foresight, often about major events, less about specific data points. * [[猜测]] (cāicè) - To guess, to conjecture. A more formal word for "guess" than just 猜. It emphasizes that there is no solid evidence. * [[分析]] (fēnxī) - To analyze. This is the core activity one performs to make an accurate 预测. * [[未来]] (wèilái) - The future. The time period that all predictions are concerned with. * [[数据]] (shùjù) - Data. The raw material needed for most modern forms of 预测.