Literally, these characters combine to mean “wind comes from an empty hole.” The logic is that if there is wind, there must be a hole or opening for it to pass through. This physical observation serves as a metaphor: if there is a rumor (wind), there must be some sort of reason or source (the hole) for it, no matter how small. The modern meaning ignores this logic and focuses on “空,” interpreting it as a rumor coming from an empty, non-existent source.
The modern meaning is the exact opposite. It's closer to expressions like “a rumor out of thin air” or “completely unfounded.” Understanding this duality is key to mastering the term.
In modern-day China, you should assume `空穴来风` means “baseless rumor” unless the context makes it absolutely clear otherwise.