yùbào: 预报 - Forecast, Prediction

• Keywords: 预报, yùbào, Chinese forecast, weather forecast in Chinese, predict in Chinese, yubao meaning, Chinese for prediction, 天气预报, economic forecast
• Summary: 预报 (yùbào) is a core Chinese word that means “forecast” or “to forecast.” While it is most famously used in 天气预报 (tiānqì yùbào), the “weather forecast,” its meaning extends to any data-driven prediction, such as an economic forecast or an earthquake warning. This page will explore the characters, cultural significance, and practical daily use of 预报, helping you distinguish it from similar words like 预测 (yùcè) and 估计 (gūjì).

• Pinyin (with tone marks): yùbào
• Part of Speech: Noun, Verb
• HSK Level: HSK 4
• Concise Definition: A forecast or prediction, typically based on data; to forecast.
• In a Nutshell: Think of 预报 as an “advance report.” It's a formal or official prediction based on analysis, not just a casual guess. The most common image it conjures is the daily weather forecast on the news, complete with charts and data from the meteorological bureau. It carries a sense of objectivity and information being disseminated to the public.

• 预 (yù): This character means “in advance,” “beforehand,” or “to prepare.” It sets the stage for something that hasn't happened yet. You can think of it as the “pre-” in “prediction.”
• 报 (bào): This character means “to report,” “to announce,” or “a report” (like in 报纸 - bàozhǐ, newspaper). It implies the formal act of communicating information.
• When combined, 预 (in advance) + 报 (to report) logically creates the meaning “to report in advance,” which is exactly what a forecast is.

In China, the 天气预报 (tiānqì yùbào) is a significant part of the daily information diet, much like in the West. It is prominently featured after the main national news broadcast (新闻联播 - Xīnwén Liánbō) on CCTV, indicating its importance. However, the cultural context extends beyond just rain or sunshine. Forecasts for air quality, specifically the Air Quality Index (空气质量指数 - kōngqì zhìliàng zhǐshù), are a major concern in urban daily life, influencing decisions about wearing masks or engaging in outdoor activities. Furthermore, in a country where agriculture is vital and which is prone to natural disasters like typhoons (台风) and floods, official forecasts from the state meteorological administration (气象局) are treated with significant gravity. Unlike a casual Western “I predict it's going to rain,” which is more akin to the Chinese word 估计 (gūjì, to guess/estimate), a 预报 is understood to be a scientific and authoritative statement. There's an inherent trust in the data and the institution providing the report.

预报 is used in various contexts, almost always implying a basis in data or systematic observation.

• Weather and Environment: This is the most common usage. It covers everything from temperature and precipitation to more serious warnings.
  • 天气预报 (tiānqì yùbào) - weather forecast
  • 台风预报 (táifēng yùbào) - typhoon forecast
  • 空气质量预报 (kōngqì zhìliàng yùbào) - air quality forecast
• Economic and Financial: In formal settings, 预报 is used for economic projections.
  • 经济增长预报 (jīngjì zēngzhǎng yùbào) - economic growth forecast
• Public Safety and Information:
  • 地震预报 (dìzhèn yùbào) - earthquake forecast/warning
  • 交通预报 (jiāotōng yùbào) - traffic forecast
• As a Verb: 预报 can also be used as a verb, meaning “to forecast.”
  • 气象台预报明天有雨。 (Qìxiàngtái yùbào míngtiān yǒu yǔ.) - The weather station forecasts rain for tomorrow.

• Example 1:
  • 你看今天的天气预报了吗？
  • Pinyin: Nǐ kàn jīntiān de tiānqì yùbào le ma?
  • English: Did you see today's weather forecast?
  • Analysis: A very common, everyday question. Here, 预报 is used as a noun.
• Example 2:
  • 天气预报说周末会很冷，你多穿点衣服。
  • Pinyin: Tiānqì yùbào shuō zhōumò huì hěn lěng, nǐ duō chuān diǎn yīfu.
  • English: The weather forecast says it will be cold this weekend, you should wear more clothes.
  • Analysis: Shows how people use the forecast to make practical decisions. The verb 说 (shuō) is used to mean “says” or “reports.”
• Example 3:
  • 中央气象台预报，明天下午将有大风。
  • Pinyin: Zhōngyāng Qìxiàngtái yùbào, míngtiān xiàwǔ jiāng yǒu dàfēng.
  • English: The Central Meteorological Station forecasts that there will be strong winds tomorrow afternoon.
  • Analysis: Here, 预报 is used as a verb. This sentence structure is typical of a formal news report.
• Example 4:
  • 这个天气预报不太准，现在外面阳光灿烂。
  • Pinyin: Zhège tiānqì yùbào bú tài zhǔn, xiànzài wàimiàn yángguāng cànlàn.
  • English: This weather forecast isn't very accurate; it's sunny and bright outside right now.
  • Analysis: A common complaint when the weather doesn't match the prediction. 准 (zhǔn) means “accurate.”
• Example 5:
  • 手机应用可以提供实时的空气质量预报。
  • Pinyin: Shǒujī yìngyòng kěyǐ tígōng shíshí de kōngqì zhìliàng yùbào.
  • English: Mobile apps can provide real-time air quality forecasts.
  • Analysis: Highlights a modern application of 预报 related to public health and technology.
• Example 6:
  • 政府发布了最新的经济增长预报。
  • Pinyin: Zhèngfǔ fābù le zuìxīn de jīngjì zēngzhǎng yùbào.
  • English: The government released the latest economic growth forecast.
  • Analysis: Demonstrates the use of 预报 in a formal, economic context.
• Example 7:
  • 预报显示，台风将在今晚登陆。
  • Pinyin: Yùbào xiǎnshì, táifēng jiāng zài jīnwǎn dēnglù.
  • English: The forecast indicates that the typhoon will make landfall tonight.
  • Analysis: In this sentence, 预报 stands alone as the subject, meaning “the forecast.” 显示 (xiǎnshì) means “to show” or “to indicate.”
• Example 8:
  • 节假日期间，广播会播送交通预报。
  • Pinyin: Jiéjiàrì qījiān, guǎngbō huì bōsòng jiāotōng yùbào.
  • English: During holidays, the radio will broadcast traffic forecasts.
  • Analysis: Another practical, everyday use case for urban life.
• Example 9:
  • 尽管很难，科学家们仍在研究准确的地震预报方法。
  • Pinyin: Jǐnguǎn hěn nán, kēxuéjiāmen réng zài yánjiū zhǔnquè de dìzhèn yùbào fāngfǎ.
  • English: Although it's very difficult, scientists are still researching accurate earthquake forecasting methods.
  • Analysis: Shows the term used in a scientific and more serious context.
• Example 10:
  • 根据销售数据预报，下个季度的利润会上升。
  • Pinyin: Gēnjù xiāoshòu shùjù yùbào, xià ge jìdù de lìrùn huì shàngshēng.
  • English: According to the forecast from sales data, profits will rise next quarter.
  • Analysis: Demonstrates how 预报 can be used as a verb in a business context, emphasizing its data-driven nature.

The most common point of confusion for learners is distinguishing 预报 from similar-sounding words.

• 预报 (yùbào) vs. 预测 (yùcè): This is the key difference to master.
  • 预报 (yùbào) is a “report.” It's about disseminating existing, data-based predictions. Think of the TV news anchor reporting the forecast.
  • 预测 (yùcè) is the “act of calculating or analyzing” to make a prediction. Think of the meteorologists calculating the weather patterns. An expert can 预测 the market, and then the news will 预报 their prediction.
• 预报 (yùbào) vs. 估计 (gūjì):
  • 预报 (yùbào) is formal, official, and data-based.
  • 估计 (gūjì) is a personal guess, estimate, or reckoning. It's informal and subjective.
• Common Mistake: Using 预报 for a personal opinion or guess.
  • Incorrect: 我预报他今天会迟到。(Wǒ yùbào tā jīntiān huì chídào.)
  • Why it's wrong: This sounds overly formal and strange, as if you are a news station broadcasting a report on your friend's tardiness.
  • Correct: 我估计他今天会迟到。(Wǒ gūjì tā jīntiān huì chídào.) - “I guess/reckon he will be late today.”

• 天气预报 (tiānqì yùbào) - The most common and direct application of 预报: “weather forecast.”
• 预测 (yùcè) - To predict, to forecast. Focuses on the analytical act of predicting, while 预报 focuses on the report itself.
• 预告 (yùgào) - A preview, trailer, or advance notice (e.g., for a film or event). A “notice in advance,” not a data-based forecast.
• 估计 (gūjì) - To guess, to estimate. An informal, subjective prediction.
• 报道 (bàodào) - To report (on news that has already happened). This is the counterpart to 预报. One is about the future, the other about the past/present.
• 预言 (yùyán) - A prophecy, a prediction. Often carries a sense of fate, destiny, or non-scientific intuition.
• 警报 (jǐngbào) - A warning or alarm. A more urgent type of “report,” signaling immediate danger (e.g., 火灾警报 - fire alarm).
• 气象局 (qìxiàngjú) - The Meteorological Bureau; the official weather station or authority that issues a 天气预报.